Investment Summary: BMY has the strongest portfolio of immuno-oncology(I/O) assets in the space. Volatility around competition and trials has created a compelling entry in the low $50's. We believe that BMY's I/O mono and combination platform (Opdivo & Opdivo-Yervoy) will be successful in many cancers, including lung, and drive a material revenue inflection over the next 5+ years. The confluence of stable to up revenue & EPS expectations coupled with many clinical trial datapoints serve as material drivers of the stock over the next 2-3 years. We view BMY's market opportunity as $20-40B, which may grow as BMY expands into other cancers.
Opdivo Current Indication Base: 2L NSCLC, 1L/2L Melanoma, 1L/2L RCC, 2L H&N, 2L Bladder, 2L HCC, 3L CRC (MSI-high), 3L Gastric(Japan only), Adjuvant Melanoma
Opdivo-Yervoy Combo Indication Base: 1L,2L Melanoma, 1L Head-Neck, 2L Colorectal Cancer, 1L,2L Renal Cell Carcinoma
Upcoming Events: (CM: Checkmate trial, this is the name of various BMY trials in cancer)
4Q18: CM-331 P3 Opdivo data in 2L SCLC
2H18: CM-459 P3 Opdivo data in 1L HCC/liver cancer
2H18: CM-451 combo therapy data in 1L Maintenance (post chemo) SCLC
4Q18/1Q19: CM-227 Opdivo + Yervoy Part 1 OS in PDL1+ group (second co-primary endpoint) in NSCLC
12/27/18: Empliciti (w/ABBV) U.S. approval in 3L r/r MM w/poma+dex (PDUFA 12/27/18).
12/29/18: Sprycel U.S. approval for pedi 1L Ph+ ALL (PDUFA 12/29/18).
1H19: CM-227 Part 2 results in Opdivo+Chemo vs. Chemo in NSCLC
2019: P3 results CM-227 in NSCLC for part 2 results for Opdivo (monotherapy) vs Chemo in 2019
2019: CM-561 P3 data in 1L Head and Neck cancer
2019: CM-9LA P3 data in NSCLC for triple therapy: Opdivo+Yervoy+Chemo
2019: CM-649 P3 data for combo therapy in 1L gastric cancer
2019: CM-651 and CM-714 for combo therapy in 1L head & neck cancer
2019: Orencia Phase III data in lupus nephritis
2019: TYK2i Ph II data in psoriasis
Company Description: BMY is a global biopharma company with key franchises in Cardiovascular, Immunology, and Oncology. The Oncology franchise is top of mind for investors given BMY's leading immuno-oncology segment with next generation therapies that are progressing through development. BMY is the leader in combo therapy where two or more immuno-oncology agents (e.g. Opdivo & Yervoy) work together to attack the cancer.